Baseball’s offseason pitching market is about to get wild – and the most shocking part is that there isn’t a single, obvious ace sitting on top of the pile.
Big picture: a crowded, confusing market
Every winter, teams battle over starting pitchers, and this year’s free-agent class might be one of the most fascinating in recent memory. Instead of one clearly elite arm, there’s a cluster of roughly four to six starters who could realistically lead or co-lead a rotation in 2026, depending on how you value different skills and risk profiles.
What makes this group so intriguing is how close they are in overall value yet how different they look under the hood. Some rely on ground balls, some on strikeouts, some on guile and pitch mix, and some on upside that hasn’t fully materialized. That means different front offices could rank the same pitchers in very different orders, based on their scouts, analytics, ballpark, and team defense. And this is where it gets controversial: is it smarter to pay for stability or to gamble on pure ceiling?
A panel of 15 MLB.com voters tried to sort through that question in a special free-agent edition of the Starting Pitcher Power Rankings. Their ballots, which excluded any starter who already signed or accepted a qualifying offer for 2026, produced the top 10 list below, along with a group of honorable mentions.
1) Framber Valdez
If you want reliability in your rotation, Framber Valdez is about as bankable as it gets. Since joining the Astros’ rotation full time in 2020, the left-hander has posted an ERA+ in the 114–138 range every season, thrown more than 175 innings in each of the past four years, and topped 3.5 Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) in each of those four campaigns. That level of durability and performance puts him fifth in MLB in innings (973) and tied for sixth in fWAR (20.3) over that span.
Valdez does it without eye-popping velocity or massive strikeout totals, which might cause some fans to underrate him at first glance. Instead, he excels at generating ground balls, a skill that becomes incredibly valuable for teams with strong infield defenses or home parks that favor hitters. In the right environment, his contact-management style can play like a quiet ace. And here’s the part most people miss: you don’t always need a 98 mph fastball to anchor a staff if you dominate the strike zone and control contact as well as he does.
2) Dylan Cease
Sharing that sixth-place fWAR spot since 2020 is Dylan Cease, but his profile couldn’t be more different from Valdez’s. Cease is the classic boom-or-bust option: over the past four seasons, he’s alternated between top-five finishes in Cy Young Award voting (2022 and 2024) and years where his ERA hovered around 4.50, even though some underlying metrics suggested he deserved better (2023 and 2025).
He misses plenty of bats and racks up strikeouts, yet he also tends to issue too many walks and sometimes exits games earlier than teams would like. That volatility raises a big question for front offices: are you signing an ace or an enigma? The upside is enormous, which will draw plenty of suitors, but some clubs may worry that they’re paying premium prices for a roller-coaster ride. Would you bet big money on elite strikeout stuff if it comes with inconsistency?
3) Ranger Suárez
Ranger Suárez is the kind of pitcher who doesn’t wow statcast leaderboards but quietly keeps your team in games. If you’re shopping for high-end fastball velocity, elite whiff rates, or top-tier strikeout numbers, Suárez probably won’t top your list; his fastball velocity has sat around the 7th percentile in 2025, with only modest whiff and strikeout rates. He also isn’t a classic workhorse, averaging about 147 innings per season since 2022.
Yet the lefty has built a strong résumé with the Phillies, posting a 3.38 career ERA and a 3.59 ERA as a full-time starter over the last four seasons. Armed with a deep six-pitch mix, he excels at limiting both walks and hard contact, and in fact, no regular starter last season allowed a lower hard-hit rate than his 31.1%. That makes him a fascinating litmus test for modern pitching evaluation: do you prioritize pure stuff and radar-gun readings, or do you trust run prevention and contact management even if the peripherals look ordinary?
4) Tatsuya Imai
Tatsuya Imai is one of four notable pitchers making the jump from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) to MLB this offseason, and he might be the most intriguing of the bunch. The 27-year-old right-hander, coming off strong seasons with the Saitama Seibu Lions, has been posted and has until Jan. 2 at 5 p.m. to negotiate an MLB deal, giving interested teams a clear decision window.
Despite being listed at just 5-foot-11 and 154 pounds, Imai has shown the competitiveness and skill set to attract serious attention from pitching-hungry clubs. He has openly embraced the challenge of not just transitioning to MLB, but going after star-studded lineups like the back-to-back champion Dodgers. That confidence, paired with his performance in Japan, has many evaluators viewing him as a top-five free-agent starter this winter—an assessment echoed by the voting panel. The controversial question here: should teams treat NPB success as equivalent to MLB performance when handing out big contracts?
5) Michael King
Michael King might be one of the toughest pitchers on this list to judge. On paper, his starting track record looks excellent: a 3.35 ERA across 64 career starts and a 3.10 ERA (with a 134 ERA+ and 3.65 FIP) since the 2024 season. Those numbers scream high-end mid-rotation arm, with flashes of something even more.
The concerns show up when you look at health and workload. Injuries limited King to only 15 starts and 73 1/3 innings in 2025, meaning 2024 is the only season in which he has logged at least 105 big league innings. Before being traded to San Diego in the Juan Soto deal, he spent five years bouncing between roles with the Yankees, which complicates long-term projections. Some of his underlying metrics also slid from 2024 to 2025, including an increase in his expected ERA from 3.56 to 4.31. So while his profile remains compelling, he likely carries more risk than the names above him. Would you treat him as a budding frontline starter or as a talented arm best penciled into the middle of the rotation?
6) Zac Gallen
Zac Gallen is a reminder that timing can be everything in free agency. Had he hit the market after the 2022, 2023, or even 2024 campaigns, he might have been viewed as one of the top arms available, coming off back-to-back top-five finishes in Cy Young voting in 2022–23. Instead, he reaches free agency following a down season, with a career-worst 4.83 ERA and 4.50 FIP, plus some worrying trends beneath the surface.
There are still clear positives: Gallen surpassed 30 starts and 180 innings for the third time in four years, showing durability that many teams crave. He’s also not far removed from elite-level performance, which keeps the door open for a rebound, especially if a new environment helps him reset. The big debate is whether his 2025 struggles are a blip or the start of a decline. Is this the perfect buy-low opportunity on a former ace, or a trap for teams chasing past glory?
7) Merrill Kelly
For much of the past seven seasons, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen formed a formidable one-two punch for the Diamondbacks, right up until Kelly was traded to the Rangers at this year’s Trade Deadline. Now they sit side by side again, this time in the free-agent starter power rankings. Kelly’s path to MLB was unconventional: he revitalized his career in the KBO before debuting in the Majors at age 30.
Now 37, Kelly likely won’t be in line for a long-term deal, but his recent performance suggests he can still help a rotation immediately. He just wrapped a season with a 3.52 ERA over 32 starts, marking the third time in four years he’s made at least 30 starts with an ERA at or below that level. Averaging about 92 mph on his four-seam fastball and sinker, he has leaned more heavily on his changeup, which became his most-used pitch in 2025 and produced a chase rate near 50%. Some might argue age is a major red flag, but others see him as the kind of short-term, high-floor signing that can quietly swing a playoff race.
8) Chris Bassitt
Chris Bassitt enters free agency with a résumé that mirrors Kelly’s in several ways. He’s another veteran right-hander heading into his age-37 season after a sturdy, if slightly diminished, campaign: a 3.96 ERA across 170 1/3 innings. The performance might not quite match his peak years, but teams know what they’re getting—someone who takes the ball consistently and competes deep into games.
Like Kelly, Bassitt no longer relies on big velocity; his fastball now sits comfortably below league average. To compensate, he turned himself into a true “crafty” pitcher in 2025, throwing eight distinct pitch types, with only his sinker used more than 17% of the time. That kind of pitch diversity can keep hitters guessing, but it also raises a question for evaluators: is this clever adaptation sustainable, or does the margin for error shrink as his stuff continues to age?
9) Justin Verlander
If Kelly and Bassitt are seasoned, Justin Verlander is in a category of his own. He will turn 43 before Opening Day, which would be a concern for almost any pitcher—except he is a future Hall of Famer whose career has already defied normal aging curves. Early last season with the Giants, though, it genuinely looked like time might finally be catching up, as he stumbled to a 4.70 ERA before the All-Star break.
Then Verlander flipped the script. After the break, he posted a 2.99 ERA, and his expected numbers in August and September (including a .286 xwOBA allowed) placed him among the top 20 regular starters, on par with names like Logan Webb, Max Fried, and Logan Gilbert. That surge suggested there is still meaningful gas left in the tank, even if it comes with more risk than ever before. Some teams might shy away because of age alone, but others will look at his late-season form and wonder if they’re getting one last stretch of vintage Verlander.
10) Tyler Mahle
Tyler Mahle represents the classic “great when healthy” dilemma. Over his last 90 games (89 starts), he has delivered a 3.61 ERA, 121 ERA+, and 3.77 FIP—numbers that would fit nicely in the upper half of most rotations. Narrow that down to his 2025 performance, and it gets even more impressive: a 2.18 ERA, 168 ERA+, and 3.37 FIP.
The catch is availability. Those 89 starts are spread over six seasons, and in 2025 he made only 16 starts, missing roughly three months due to right shoulder fatigue. That contrast explains his position on this list: teams can see how effective he is when he’s on the mound, but they must decide how much they trust his body to hold up over a full season. Would you rather pay more for a slightly less talented but more durable arm, or roll the dice on Mahle’s upside and hope injuries don’t resurface?
Honorable mentions and voting panel
Several other notable names just missed the top 10 but are still very much in play for teams seeking rotation help. The honorable mentions group includes Max Scherzer, Zach Eflin, Cody Ponce, Lucas Giolito, Nick Martinez, Zack Littell, and Kona Takahashi—each with their own blend of track record, risk, and potential value.
The rankings themselves were shaped by a diverse panel of 15 MLB.com contributors: Chris Begley, Jason Catania, Scott Chiusano, Daniel Feldman, Doug Gausepohl, Brent Maguire, Travis Miller, Brian Murphy, Arturo Pardavila, Manny Randhawa, Andrew Simon, David Venn, Zac Vierra, Tom Vourtsis, and Andy Werle. With so many voices weighing in, disagreement was inevitable, which makes these results as much a conversation starter as a definitive list.
Your turn: who’s really the “ace” here?
Looking over this list, one thing becomes clear: there may not be a single, universally agreed-upon ace in this free-agent class—but there are plenty of pitchers who could look like an ace in the right situation. Some offer reliability, others offer huge upside, and a few bring legendary résumés with late-career question marks attached.
So what matters more to you: durability or dominance, track record or upside, steady floor or sky-high ceiling? Which pitcher would you most want your team to sign, and who do you think is the most overrated or underrated name here? Drop your thoughts—agree, disagree, or call out a “snub” you think should’ve cracked the top 10—in the comments and join the debate.
